Volatility should remain elevated amid trade uncertainty – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of some second-tier US economic releases on Thursday, though the market will continue to look toward trade headlines for direction.

Key Quotes:

“With the FOMC minutes out of the way, the market will continue to look toward trade headlines for direction. The ongoing uncertainty about whether a Phase 1 deal can be finished suggests that volatility should remain elevated. This can also keep markets pricing in more 2020 rate cuts as the higher probability of trade tensions can keep economic fundamentals under pressure.”
 
“The Philly Fed manufacturing survey will give us a new indication about the performance of the sector in November, with the consensus looking for a modest increase to 6.0 from 5.6 in October. Separately, existing home sales are expected to increase 2.0% m/m in October following a -2.2% decline in the prior month. Sales have picked-up recently under an environment of low mortgage rates, which has also helped to support the rest of the housing sector.”