USD/RUB potential for a drop to the 59.00 area – Danske Bank

Strategists at Danske Bank believe RUB is poised to appreciate in the next months.

Key Quotes

“The rouble continues its journey detached from the crude price, driven mostly by the global emerging market sentiment on the trade war and geopolitical cautiousness; notably, Russia’s Ministry of Finance is set to continue limiting the RUB’s extra strengthening on oil price swings”.

“Still, a lower oil price would be RUB negative. The revived hawkishness of the Bank of Russia is helping the RUB among other emerging markets. Given the current escalation of global trade wars, we see the USD/RUB pair staying higher from our previous forecasts but lower still over the forecast horizon: 61.70 in 1M (previously 61.50), 60.90 in 3M (previously 60.10), 59.00 in 6M (previously 58.30) and 57.50 in 12M (previously 55.70)”.