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22 Feb 2016
EUR/USD forecast: attention to PMIs – Commerzbank and UOB
EUR/USD has come under further downside pressure at the beginning of the week, opening the door to a potential visit to the mid-1.1000s ahead of PMIs.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted spot “spent last week easing lower to the 200 day ma at 1.1053 and we would allow for this to hold the initial test. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart which adds weight to the idea that the market will bounce today. Intraday bounces should remain relatively shallow and we then look for losses to the base of the channel currently circa 1.0922. Longer term we favour a break down from here also to 1.0560/1.0457”.
Furthermore, the research team at UOB Group suggested “while the current pull-back from the 11 Feb high of 1.1375 could extend lower towards the major support at 1.0990, the odds for such a move is not high. However, only a move back above 1.1250 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted spot “spent last week easing lower to the 200 day ma at 1.1053 and we would allow for this to hold the initial test. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart which adds weight to the idea that the market will bounce today. Intraday bounces should remain relatively shallow and we then look for losses to the base of the channel currently circa 1.0922. Longer term we favour a break down from here also to 1.0560/1.0457”.
Furthermore, the research team at UOB Group suggested “while the current pull-back from the 11 Feb high of 1.1375 could extend lower towards the major support at 1.0990, the odds for such a move is not high. However, only a move back above 1.1250 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased”.