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13 Aug 2013
Flash: AUD/USD could see uptick towards 0.9300 – Westpac
FXstreet.com (New York) - Global FX Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac analyzes the short-term outlook of the AUD/USD.
Key quotes
The AUD/USD 5 August low around 0.8850 is obvious multi-week support while 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Apr-Aug slide would make 0.9500/10 a stretch target. The low 0.93s seems a more realistic target given our fundamental view.
“The Trade-weighted AUD has fallen about -15% from its April peak – this has gone a long way to addressing the apparent AUD overvaluation (particularly against commodity prices) that had been concerning the RBA.”
“Westpac now sees AUD as being close to fair value (roughly 0.91) but the RBA of course plays its cards close to its chest, saying only that further declines are possible and indicating that this would be welcome.”
Key quotes
The AUD/USD 5 August low around 0.8850 is obvious multi-week support while 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Apr-Aug slide would make 0.9500/10 a stretch target. The low 0.93s seems a more realistic target given our fundamental view.
“The Trade-weighted AUD has fallen about -15% from its April peak – this has gone a long way to addressing the apparent AUD overvaluation (particularly against commodity prices) that had been concerning the RBA.”
“Westpac now sees AUD as being close to fair value (roughly 0.91) but the RBA of course plays its cards close to its chest, saying only that further declines are possible and indicating that this would be welcome.”