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19 Jun 2013
Flash: FOMC highlights – BBH
FXstreet.com (London) - There are three parts to the Fed story today, according to Brown Brother Harriman Global Currency Strategy Team: The FOMC statement, the forecasts and Bernanke's press conference.
They said the statement itself is likely to be the least important as the general assessment of the economy is unlikely to change significantly. The description of price pressures and the labour market may be tweaked to recognize the lower core inflation and continued modest improvement in labour market conditions. They do however say that the Fed's forecasts are important. They are part of the forward guidance and the bar against which the actual economic data needs to be measured against for policy implications.
“Here the Fed is likely to revise down its growth forecasts and, probably, its inflation forecasts. The mid-point in the March forecasts for GDP growth was 2.6%. This is well above market expectations, which are closer to 2% for this year.” They suggest the Fed may also shave next year's forecast from the current 3.2% and the 2015 projection of 3.3% (mid-point) may not be changed and is actually closer to market forecasts. They note that the US economy has not grown by more than 3% for a full calendar year in 8 years.
They said the statement itself is likely to be the least important as the general assessment of the economy is unlikely to change significantly. The description of price pressures and the labour market may be tweaked to recognize the lower core inflation and continued modest improvement in labour market conditions. They do however say that the Fed's forecasts are important. They are part of the forward guidance and the bar against which the actual economic data needs to be measured against for policy implications.
“Here the Fed is likely to revise down its growth forecasts and, probably, its inflation forecasts. The mid-point in the March forecasts for GDP growth was 2.6%. This is well above market expectations, which are closer to 2% for this year.” They suggest the Fed may also shave next year's forecast from the current 3.2% and the 2015 projection of 3.3% (mid-point) may not be changed and is actually closer to market forecasts. They note that the US economy has not grown by more than 3% for a full calendar year in 8 years.