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20 Oct 2014
Limited downside potential seen for USD/CAD - TD Securities
FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of experts believe that despite the slight gains seen in USD/CAD at the US opening there is limited downside potential for the pair.
Key quotes
"Domestically, this week the focus will be on the BoC’s meeting and release of the MPR on Wednesday."
"Financial market jitters of late, significantly weaker commodity prices, and softening global growth momentum will play a prominent role in the Bank’s communique, offering enough justification for maintaining a neutral stance on the overnight rate, a cautious tone of the overall assessment, and what we expect to be a dovish-sounding stance."
"Updated economic projections and a discussion of the downward revision to what the central bank considers to the Canada’s neutral policy rate will be featured on the MPR."
"On the charts, the short-term undertone for USDCAD looks a little soft and the USD’s inability to hold on to last week’s gains through the upper 1.13s leaves quite a large 'overhang' on the daily charts in the form of two pretty significant mid-week sell offs and USDCAD closing around a big figure off its intraday highs both Wednesday and Thursday."
"These signals form a bearish 'shooting star' on the daily candle chart."
"But, as noted above, dips to the 1.1220/30 were well-supported last week and firm, underlying trend momentum suggests limited downside for the market initially this week at least."
"From here, we might need a break below 1.12 or above 1.14 to get a better sense of direction."
Key quotes
"Domestically, this week the focus will be on the BoC’s meeting and release of the MPR on Wednesday."
"Financial market jitters of late, significantly weaker commodity prices, and softening global growth momentum will play a prominent role in the Bank’s communique, offering enough justification for maintaining a neutral stance on the overnight rate, a cautious tone of the overall assessment, and what we expect to be a dovish-sounding stance."
"Updated economic projections and a discussion of the downward revision to what the central bank considers to the Canada’s neutral policy rate will be featured on the MPR."
"On the charts, the short-term undertone for USDCAD looks a little soft and the USD’s inability to hold on to last week’s gains through the upper 1.13s leaves quite a large 'overhang' on the daily charts in the form of two pretty significant mid-week sell offs and USDCAD closing around a big figure off its intraday highs both Wednesday and Thursday."
"These signals form a bearish 'shooting star' on the daily candle chart."
"But, as noted above, dips to the 1.1220/30 were well-supported last week and firm, underlying trend momentum suggests limited downside for the market initially this week at least."
"From here, we might need a break below 1.12 or above 1.14 to get a better sense of direction."