Forex Flash: Rebalancing to go ahead at the expense of EM – Societe Generale

Sebastien Galy, Senior FX Strategist at Societe Generale believes that rebalancing will go ahead at the expense of Emerging Market currencies.

He is remaining short GBP/USD and looking to long USD/JPY at 90 and strategically, he writes, “ we like long Vega in EM/USD and short gamma on the chance that the broader EM/USD position will eventually correct later in the coming weeks. Short GBP/USD is partly an expression of this. US retail sales in Jan will likely survive the hit from the 2% hike in taxes supporting USD/JPY and CAD vs USD.”

Feb 13, 2013

Forex Flash: Stay short AUD/NZD on monetary convergence – UBS

We entered a short AUD/NZD trade recommendation on January 31st largely on the view that monetary policy settings in Australia and New Zealand are likely to converge. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “There is another reason to stay bearish on the cross too, given bond market dynamics are soon likely to tilt in the New Zealand dollar's favor.”

Forex Flash: Rogue G7 source says nothing new – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman analysts feel that there was nothing in the rogue G7 sourced comment yesterday that Japanese Finance Minister Aso did not say prior to the G7 statement and before the weekend.